Things are looking pretty good for Obama: even without Florida, he's leading 309 to 229 in electoral votes -- see here. Note that this finding is not contradicted by the polls that are reported in the main stream media which suggest that Obama's lead in the popular vote is still within the margin of error. (The analysis suggesting that Obama currently leads by 80 electoral votes is based on a prediction that Obama will win 51.6% of the popular vote with McCain getting 47.3%.)
It's of course the electoral votes that count, and those votes are allocated based on winner-takes-all in 48 of the 50 states. (Only Maine and Nebraska do not follow this rule.) To suggest that this is currently a close race is therefore to make the same mistake as advising a candidate in the democratic presidential primaries, where electoral votes are allocated by proportional representation, to only focus on the big states. (Mark Penn, anyone?) Hillary Clinton's "chief strategist" made this elementary mistake, thereby substantially contributing to her strategic loss.
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